It's all GM's Masterplan.
Phase 1
GM is certain of Chrysler's doom after Chryler releases the PT Cruiser. GM forms an intent to snap up Chrysler for cheap after Daimler AG inevitably dumps it. GM approaches FIAT, which is much less greedy and more obedient than its German counterparts, with plans to purchase and distribute Chrysler assets amongst themselves. To hide their true intentions from Daimler-Chrysler, they cover up their internal dealings as "merger talks".
Phase 2
GM realizes that the coming political climate means a pressure on American auto makers. It entrusts FIAT with $2 billion for future purposes, and included is reward for FIAT's cooperation. GM and FIAT end the first phase and cover it up as failed negotiation, and pretend the money exchanged is a penalty fee. The two go "separate ways" as if nothing's happened.
Phase 3
To strengthen the secret GM-FIAT partnership, two continue to share engines and platform of some of their most important models. FIAT pretends there is nothing between it and GM by developing a small car platform with Ford, which is very loudly publicized.
Phase 4
The inevitable happens and Daimler AG dumps Chrysler. GM and FIAT see how far Chrysler's value goes down until the unexpected happens and Cerberus buys the company. GM and FIAT sees bright side to this, however, since they know Chrysler is forever doomed and more failed owners means lower price in the end. This is confirmed by Gianni Agnelli, who had returned from the dead briefly to tell Rick Wagoner of the future. The fee for this intel was included in the $2 billion "penalty" fee.
Phase 5
Cerberus, notorious for buying money-losing operations, including GMAC, (for reasons beyond human understandings; alien influence is generally accepted as the most likely explanation) gives up hope, and rumors of the Chryler operation pawning its assets fly. The notion of Viper brand as a separate entity is floated around, but no one is that stupid to take that on, and Cerberus's Chrysler operation is doomed. The new Chevrolet Camaro, car designed specifically designed to make the Challenger seem overweight and underpowered, arrives with predictably less weight and more power per mass.
Phase 6
FIAT pretends to be interested in returning to US as early as 2005. In reality, its plans prevents starting US sales any time before 2012. This is just a ruse to size up any potential Chrysler booty it can pick up for low, low prices by year 2012.
Phase 7
Chrysler, and its government bailout package, is swallowed whole by GM, which dismembers Chrysler into chunks and sells it for scraps of cash. Some of the major chunks is sold to FIAT, who will get the best cuts of the meat before the rest is tossed to the likes of Kia and Tata. FIAT explains the development as "a sudden but fortunate opportunity that just happened to come their way". GM and FIAT move on to Ford.
Crackpot Theory of the Day: the true meaning of GM/FIAT fiasco
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