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futures price equal to? Spot price + cost of carry....
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Yes.. And as any person will tell you spot price includes the price of any future expectations of increases and scarcity. Given these have had no connection any actualy shortage, and have led several speculatory events:
There has been no rationing or lines in front of gas stations outside of immediately following Katrina(a short run event). Speculators are subject to groups like goldmen(sp?) sachs saying the the price will rise to x, and the news media crying 4 dollars a gallon. They are also subject to the myth in the general media that running out of oil is even possible. Stock traders arent supermen, they are subject to falling for the same lies anyone else is.
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Of course, the price of oil cannot rise forever, i didnt suggest it would
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It wont just not rise.. It will decrease over the long haul of 10-20 years.
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Debating what makes a good trader could take a while. But if you think there is no analysis involved you are insane. You think that Goldmans trader in the City cashed a $50m bonus last year because he's quick on the draw?
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I never said analysis wasnt used. I said analysis of past shows no valid way of buy a stock that will earn money. The price of all previous earnings and expected earnings based on past experience is already priced into the stock. Statistical analysis of said estimates show a complete random percentage of correct pics based on this. Understanding the past has benefits, but predicting the future is not one of them.
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When one says 'fundamentals', it means fundamental drivers, which don't necessarily carry a price. I would have thought someone with market experience would know that. And no, there was no precedent for valuing dotcom companies, which is why people lost a lot of money.
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One has to wonder where I said it didnt.. I said 'none of them have increase other then...'
Dont put words in my mouth.
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