Sports Car Forum - MotorWorld.net

Sports Car Forum - MotorWorld.net (http://www.motorworld.net/forum/index.php)
-   Car Chat (http://www.motorworld.net/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=16)
-   -   How to obtain supercars (http://www.motorworld.net/forum/showthread.php?t=29874)

f1dreamr575 09-20-2005 05:34 PM

How to obtain supercars
 
I'm 18 right now, about to go to college at UF for mechanical engineering probably and i've been wondering if i'm doing to the right thing to make lots of money. I want to be able to have enough money to have a ferraris or porsches when i'm older. What kind of jobs to these people have that run in gumballs and are young and have $300k cars. I wanna be close to $500k by the time i'm in my 40's but am I going in the right path? Should I major in something different? I'm doing karting next summer but the chances of going to F1, cart, or even touring car racing is probably slim to none and if I go through life longing for cars like this and never having one will truly be a waste.

komotar 09-20-2005 05:41 PM

OMG, what kind of questions.

If I would start answering and explaining, it would take me all night, but I have to get up early and go to work...

And for racing and goingo to F1.....dude, all the serious drivers, or almost all, started racing before they were 10. :wink:

Si I guess I'll just hand this matter to RC or someone, who will deal with this in three or four short sentences, maybe even less.

Good night :lol:

Anonymous 09-20-2005 05:58 PM

42

twboy1999 09-20-2005 06:11 PM

just do what u love and do it well, ad u will make big money

think big, make big
think small, make small

RC45 09-20-2005 06:14 PM

What Dani said.

You either steal it, inherit it or find yourself "in the right place at the right time".

The last one is a variation of "work like fucking hell as a business owner" - or make some amazingly fortunate stock purchases - etc etc.

Oh - or already be good enough to be drafted as a pro-athlete.

;)

sameerrao 09-20-2005 06:17 PM

Or goad RC to use his riches to buy an Italian supercar and beg for a ride. That's what I would do :)

No.1 09-20-2005 06:20 PM

Sorry, but this is a fucking stupid question :roll:

You say you are 18, but are asking questions i would expect from a 7 year old

A $500k salary isn't a job you can train for. You don't get a degree in "CEO of Company X" - you do management courses, after obtaining a degree (in anything!!!), then gain knowledge, experience and wisdom over time, and prove yourself, to get promotions, pay rises and the like.... it's not an exact science. :wink: An A-Z of making your first million hasn't been published yet, to my knowledge. And, those who say i want to earn a million before i am 25, rarely do so.

But, well, they do say you have to speculate to accumulate, so speculate all you like, but don't waste your life chasing such fickle things as cars and material goods

Oh - and good luck!!! 0X

dangerously_cool 09-20-2005 06:54 PM

Hey good luck in your ME major, I'm doing it as well at UCI. I'm trying to double or switch to Econ, so we have a similar courseload, let me know how you like it.

ARMAN 09-20-2005 07:10 PM

Find a spot in the market and deliver what is needed in a great volume. I am still looking for that spot :mrgreen:

Btw imo it is possible to make big bucks till you are 30, you just have to move youre butt very fast and you can do it :wink: Everything is possible.

Anonymous 09-20-2005 07:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dani_d_mas
^^^ :?: :?:

42 is the answer to everything dude!! :P

dingo 09-20-2005 07:30 PM

invest in the stockmarket, its doing great things for me (you can't lose at the moment on the ASX). :wink:

Failing that - buy a lotto ticket.

ZfrkS62 09-20-2005 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AL123
42

i think you're right AL!! He has found the Ultimate Question :D

graywolf624 09-20-2005 09:15 PM

Quote:

The last one is a variation of "work like fucking hell as a business owner" - or make some amazingly fortunate stock purchases - etc etc.
Actually there is a surefire way and there are books about it. The issue is, its not fun to do it.

The ways:
1) as mentioned above take boat load risks on stock market
2) be a professional athlete/born into money/ steal
3) Run your own business and be one of the lucky few.
4) The sure fire way, put all money you make into investment(dont spend it) Make major sacrifices that the average person wouldnt make(the path Im taking somewhat but not quite that strictly). This means live like you did in college for as long as possible.. Work your ass off and anything you make goes into investments(rental properties, stocks, bonds). Move around jobs alot for the first couple years and push your education alot. It won't get you the 500000 a year job which frankly is a pipe dream. But doing general math a 70-80 grand a year job (not an entry level salary but Id assume averaged over 15 years for an engineer) over 15 years with good investments ... The problem of course is, while I think someday I will be a millionare, Im not going to hold that strictly to my schedule. I want to retire the equivelent of a millionare and live off a fixed income asset like a hotel. The engineering job will do just fine if your willing to make the sacrifices (and the best choice is always what you enjoy).. The way into the executive positions is to be born into it, or establish contacts over your lifetime(read not going to happen before your 40s).
Good luck. Unfortunately higher risks equal higher reward in 1,3.. 2 you can't change. And 4 is serious deprivation. The price you pay.

antonioledesma 09-20-2005 09:20 PM

omg... :|
why not ask for the fountain of eternal youth? the pot full of gold at the end of the rainbow?

it's something very difficult to answer. I think only one or two persons here "know" how to do it.
I could say it like this: study very very very hard, work much harder, save the pennies from your allowance, try to see different business. Some will work, others won't.
don't waste your money in karting, save it, buy some stocks,
be a loan-shark,
sell used-cars,
sell one of your kidneys,
go every week (or twice a week) to the sperm bank AND the blood bank,
be a pimp and manage 2 or 3 prostitutes,
don't go out with chicks, they'll make you waste your money and you won't have energy to laid them,
work for a coyote in the USA-Mexico border (you could get 1000usd per wetback),
work for halliburton,
sue halliburton for a job accident (throw yourself out from your boss' window),
cut and loose an arm while working with milling machines, presses, etc,
work 20 hours a day.
.... and be sure to inherit some money without debts... and then MAYBe you could buy a BMW

styla21 09-20-2005 09:48 PM

I never realised the pessimistic streak that some of you let fly around here occasionally!
This guy just asked for some simple opinions on a better track to take in life, than the one he's contemplating.. I respect that.
F1 racer - if anyone suggests to you to find the best paying 'JOB', know that my opinion is the exact opposite.
In my experience, all of the wealthy people i know have a stack of assets - whether it be stock, bonds, property, a business asset, etc.
The suggestion of saving enough personally will take you forever to do this however.
I would suggest using the concept of leverage - put a network together of people / institutions that DO have the money to use right now.
There are stacks of options to use as afformentioned - but note that the hard work that it will take to do this is the research component.
Most importantly, do what you're doing right now and network yourself with the crowd you wish to be a part of.. Join a business club, call those friend-of-a-friend people who have made it, and humbly ask if you can take them to lunch to learn a little. "Birds of a feather flock together". And also remember if you can help enough people get what they want, you'll get what you want - Zig Ziglar. It's so true. :fadein:

ZfrkS62 09-20-2005 10:42 PM

^

there is a difference between pessimism and realism.

If you werent racing by the time you 5, and discovered before 12 or 13, your chances of driving for an F1 team are slim to none and slim just clocked out.

I believe the quote goes 20% of the people own 80% of the wealth. Leaving the remaining 20% to be split between the remaining 80% of the people. The gap between the rich and poor is getting bigger and cars aren't getting cheaper.

Even my dream cars are going to end up costing me about as much as a Ferrari or Lambo and they are 30+ years old NOW. Granted it's going to take some luck, and a few loans perhaps, but i guess with the right determination, it's possible.

It all boils down to how bad you want it and how hard you are willing to work for it.

blinkmeat 09-20-2005 10:45 PM

This is a really cool topic - :D

First a story - My ex's parents invented and produced VASCATH catheters - I believe it was the first "balloon-catheter" on the market - they we're from what I can assess worth $20-25 million... nice amount of cash to have at 55 - actually inspired me to invent a syringe a few years back on my time off - but I lost interest because the market was already saturated, there was huge overhead, and the returns would have been almost not worth it. (Invention "if you can actually find an idea un-patented" is a awesome way to go) - then just get investors- thats what they did.

1.) You never get rich working for someone else - its a safe play sure- but if you want to be rich you've got to take risks.

2.) Always be inventing - this is just my opinion but I think if you're always inventing stuff it will eventually bear-fruit - then it's just about taking the leap one-fine-day

3.) Be open to suggestion/ create situations for possible business deals (talk to friends/fam about your "new great idea" ) these are your most likely investors - unless you can persuade a bank or know rich people.

4.) People who won't help you along the way - aren't worth your time anyway - don't even listen to them.

5.) Dream BIG man - why wouldn't you?

Good Luck

zondaland 09-21-2005 12:08 AM

In Australia the highest paid engineers are mining engineers. The second highest are materials engineers. So take your pick if your only motivation is money, but as has already been said, save like your life depends on it if you want to get rich.

f1dreamr575 09-21-2005 12:57 AM

the main reason i'm doing mechanical engineering is I really want to apply it to cars but maybe just maybe apply it to racing. From what everyone tells me accountants,lawyers, financial anylists, and engineers make the most cash and i know engineering will be the only i'll like maybe acounting. Thanks for all the imput, maybe i should kill myself and in college and try a double major.

Z28 09-21-2005 01:42 AM

Surgeons, pilots, and dentists make good money. You could also consider a career in sales. I like how you guys are getting sociologcial; I'm waiting for someone to quote Karl Marx.

styla21 09-21-2005 03:11 AM

Also, some really good reading i believe for perspective on business, and thinking outside the square is all of Robert Kiyosaki's stuff.. Most notably "Cashflow Quadrant". This book literally empowered me to make some different decisions regarding the direction of my life and i havn't gone back. I'd recommend it to anyone :fadein:

zondaland 09-21-2005 04:25 AM

If you are very, very smart and do very well in Mech engineering then there is the possibility to work in motorsport. Quite often the good engineers are scarcer than good drivers, hence the good ones get paid a lot of money. If you decide to go down that route then a double in something like materials or aero may help you. But more importantly get involved in FSAE, this will give you experience in designeing and building race cars.

zondaland 09-21-2005 05:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dani_d_mas
Buy a lotto ticket... and mark these numbers: 4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42 :twisted: 8)

...if all you care about is the nice car :lol:

crayzayjay 09-21-2005 10:10 AM

Go long oil futures.

ARMAN 09-21-2005 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dani_d_mas
Buy a lotto ticket... and mark these numbers: 4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42 :twisted: 8)

I'll try that :P Thanx Dani :wink:

gucom 09-21-2005 04:50 PM

become an air traffic controller. in holland, they pay for u entire education, 2-3 years, if u work hard a year and a half. they pay for travel expences, even up to your pens and pencils. Then, you have a job guarantee, with a STARTING salary for 50000euros per year, and over the years (this might take awhile though) it can grow up to 120k per year. Now if you dont spend all that money immediately but invest it and maybe buy shares with it, you can make quite a fortune :D
sadly im not interested in the job, but if i fail at everything that i am interested in, thats what im gonna do 8)
slight catch, in holland, you wont be allowed to keep a big lot of the money you earn :wink: taxes and more of that kinda stuff

jon_s 09-21-2005 05:22 PM

Humm, well I may as well throw in my 2c.

If you go into a profession such as law, then in order to make it big you need a lot more going for you than you average person (you can bumble along earnign a decent salary without the below; I am talking the very top). This is the same for all the professions I have experience of. You will need pretty much the highest grades you can muster at all levels. I still had to declare my GCSEs when I got my job...I still got quizzed over a B grade.."why did you not do well there e.t.c" -(hint: a question such as that is usually trying to see if you can analyse you own performance)-. These days though every tom dick and harry has a string of A grades and a 1st for a red brick Uni, so you need to set yourself appart from the rest through what you do in your spare time. Do something connected to what you want to do. You will also need to be good at small talk mixed with a bit of luck!

So you have got all the grades, job is lined up what next? In the city (London) most people set aside 10 years to work their absoute arse off. 80 hours a week is the norm. People who sustain more than that are missing a screw! By the end of the 10 years though, you will have sold your soul but made a mint.....time to enjoy the money...(which you saved, as you had no time to spend it in the last 10 years).

Most people I know continue in the same area, but move out to a regional firm/company. If you like the pace of life, then stay in the 'city' and become a partner of a firm and earn well over £1,000,000 before any bonus.

What if that life is not for you? Well some of the richest yet youngest clients I have dealt with were in property development. They left school at 16, borrowed enough money to get a shitty little house in the middle of a run down area, did it up and sold on. By the time I got to them (Bear in mind I am the same age as some) they were on their second or 3rd million. However, the % that make it is small.

Overall, take any opportunities that come your way, pray for a bit of luck and stay determined.

ARMAN 09-21-2005 06:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dani_d_mas
Quote:

Originally Posted by ARMAN
Quote:

Originally Posted by dani_d_mas
Buy a lotto ticket... and mark these numbers: 4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42 :twisted: 8)

I'll try that :P Thanx Dani :wink:

Don't come to Barcelona then... :wink: :P

Dint worry Dani, 50/50 :P - me Ferrari you Ferrari :mrgreen:


Sorry for OT :oops: :wink:

graywolf624 09-21-2005 09:15 PM

Quote:

Go long oil futures.
Thats a good way to go broke if you stay in for any length of time, read any of our previous discussions.

Im currently considering investment either in commercial real estate or a developing country. Both high margin high risk investments..

crayzayjay 09-21-2005 09:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by graywolf624
Quote:

Go long oil futures.
Thats a good way to go broke if you stay in for any length of time, read any of our previous discussions.

Broke?? Right... I work in the industry so i do actually actually know what im talking about... Seriously. I'd go long oil.

graywolf624 09-21-2005 10:44 PM

Quote:

Broke?? Right... I work in the industry so i do actually actually know what im talking about... Seriously. I'd go long oil.
I do have a degree focusing on resource usage such as this.. Read the thread:
http://www.motorworld.net/forum/show...er=asc&start=0
For long term debunk about the price of oil increasing. Economic law proves it impossible in the same way as laws of gravity.

I've spent 4 years of my life studying this markets price/ functions. *Simply working in an industry doesnt give a full understanding of the macroenvironment(I know very little of the pharmaceutical macro environment beyond foreign trade issues, yet Ive been there for quite a while) My short run predictions are slightly more murky(but have so far held) and several big players in the market agree with me(forbes, morgan stanley, ect).
The price of oil is a bubble and it will burst.

If you were smart youd have bought oil futures back when the media started its doom saying.. and should have sold them already. Prolly should be considering going short on the remainder.
The stocks as well are about at their peak.. Never buy at a peak. Stock prices are based on the perception of future profits. Thus any doom sayer short run prophesies(for shortrun only imagined as I say or real(long term is 100 percent imagined)) are already priced into the stocks and oil futures. Thus your not going to make money jumping in at this point, your most likely going to lose.

So far IVe been correct with the shortrun predictions as the price has continuely dropped.. then about last week I predicted to a friend that the news media would force it up one more time for a short while cause they dont have anything else to whine about(again this time through the new hurricane).. But the downward trend will continue afterward.

crayzayjay 09-22-2005 07:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by graywolf624
Quote:

Broke?? Right... I work in the industry so i do actually actually know what im talking about... Seriously. I'd go long oil.
I do have a degree focusing on resource usage such as this.. Read the thread:
http://www.motorworld.net/forum/show...er=asc&start=0
For long term debunk about the price of oil increasing. Economic law proves it impossible in the same way as laws of gravity.

I've spent 4 years of my life studying this markets price/ functions. *Simply working in an industry doesnt give a full understanding of the macroenvironment(I know very little of the pharmaceutical macro environment beyond foreign trade issues, yet Ive been there for quite a while) My short run predictions are slightly more murky(but have so far held) and several big players in the market agree with me(forbes, morgan stanley, ect).
The price of oil is a bubble and it will burst.

If you were smart youd have bought oil futures back when the media started its doom saying.. and should have sold them already. Prolly should be considering going short on the remainder.
The stocks as well are about at their peak.. Never buy at a peak. Stock prices are based on the perception of future profits. Thus any doom sayer short run prophesies(for shortrun only imagined as I say or real(long term is 100 percent imagined)) are already priced into the stocks and oil futures. Thus your not going to make money jumping in at this point, your most likely going to lose.

So far IVe been correct with the shortrun predictions as the price has continuely dropped.. then about last week I predicted to a friend that the news media would force it up one more time for a short while cause they dont have anything else to whine about(again this time through the new hurricane).. But the downward trend will continue afterward.

Never buy at a peak? I've personally invested in several stocks at what were then peaks and made great returns. I don't pretend for a moment that working in the finance industry means i know better than you. But i have done my homework, and am privvy to trustworthy advice from oil industry experts. My uncle co-founded a petrochemicals company that is now worth over half a billion quid. He tends to think there's more upside, and i tend to agree with him ;)

dingo 09-22-2005 07:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jon_s
....80 hours a week is the norm. ....

Shit, I need to start working harder. :oops:

I would be on my way to a Ferrari if I got paid for 80hrs a week instead of ~40. :D

callen 09-22-2005 10:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dani_d_mas
Buy a lotto ticket... and mark these numbers: 4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42 :twisted: 8)

I like those numbers Dani but these are better: 8, 12, 25, 35, 36, 43 .... can you guess where i got em from? heheh

graywolf624 09-22-2005 07:06 PM

Quote:

Never buy at a peak? I've personally invested in several stocks at what were then peaks and made great returns. I don't pretend for a moment that working in the finance industry means i know better than you. But i have done my homework, and am privvy to trustworthy advice from oil industry experts. My uncle co-founded a petrochemicals company that is now worth over half a billion quid. He tends to think there's more upside, and i tend to agree with him
Yet again, not possible in the long run.

As for the short run, Youve only made great returns when those weren't really the peaks. The thing is, all signs point to decreasing oil prices in the next few months. Now perhaps those signs of , to uses forbes words, a bubble may be false. That being said the trace to speculation in the futures market is almost a direct map. That only lasts as long as the speculation lasts, and the news media can only cry wolf about 4 dollar a barrel gas for so long. Meanwhile the price of oil is in a downward spiral after katrina till this latest short term rita jump.

As someone who works in finance you should know that the law of efficient markets states that all future revenue expectations are priced into the value of a stock, so analyzing the past performance is useless. You should also realize that the price of oil is being jacked up by speculation. Now perhaps you believe the news media can keep up the charade longer, personally I think itll come down like the dot com bust.

ZfrkS62 09-22-2005 07:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by graywolf624
Quote:

Never buy at a peak? I've personally invested in several stocks at what were then peaks and made great returns. I don't pretend for a moment that working in the finance industry means i know better than you. But i have done my homework, and am privvy to trustworthy advice from oil industry experts. My uncle co-founded a petrochemicals company that is now worth over half a billion quid. He tends to think there's more upside, and i tend to agree with him
Yet again, not possible in the long run.

As for the short run, Youve only made great returns when those weren't really the peaks. The thing is, all signs point to decreasing oil prices in the next few months. Now perhaps those signs of , to uses forbes words, a bubble may be false. That being said the trace to speculation in the futures market is almost a direct map. That only lasts as long as the speculation lasts, and the news media can only cry wolf about 4 dollar a barrel gas for so long. Meanwhile the price of oil is in a downward spiral after katrina till this latest short term rita jump.

As someone who works in finance you should know that the law of efficient markets states that all future revenue expectations are priced into the value of a stock, so analyzing the past performance is useless. You should also realize that the price of oil is being jacked up by speculation. Now perhaps you believe the news media can keep up the charade longer, personally I think itll come down like the dot com bust.

If you still don't believe him after that, look at it this way: Gas prices here are already back to what they were before Katrina.

crayzayjay 09-22-2005 07:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by graywolf624
As for the short run, Youve only made great returns when those weren't really the peaks.

Not really the peaks? What are you on, buddy? If a stock is trading at an all-time high, then at that point in time, it's at a peak.

Quote:

Originally Posted by graywolf624
The thing is, all signs point to decreasing oil prices in the next few months. Now perhaps those signs of , to uses forbes words, a bubble may be false. That being said the trace to speculation in the futures market is almost a direct map. That only lasts as long as the speculation lasts, and the news media can only cry wolf about 4 dollar a barrel gas for so long. Meanwhile the price of oil is in a downward spiral after katrina till this latest short term rita jump.

I'm looking at it beyond the next few months. And you think im long on oil solely because of a hurricane? You think traders buy and sell because something is on CNN? There is always 'noise', but the oil price is mainly driven by fundamentals.

Quote:

Originally Posted by graywolf624
As someone who works in finance you should know that the law of efficient markets states that all future revenue expectations are priced into the value of a stock, so analyzing the past performance is useless.

Get some market experience, then tell me what you think of the law of efficient markets.

Quote:

Originally Posted by graywolf624
so analyzing the past performance is useless

Tell that to any trader and he will laugh at you.

Quote:

Originally Posted by graywolf624
You should also realize that the price of oil is being jacked up by speculation. Now perhaps you believe the news media can keep up the charade longer, personally I think itll come down like the dot com bust.

The difference between this and the dotcom bubble is that there was no precedent for valuing those types of businesses. Oil has been valued in much the same way as it ever has. Unless China decides, oh i dont know, to stop growing next year, there will be no crash in the oil price.

crayzayjay 09-22-2005 07:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZfrkS62
If you still don't believe him after that, look at it this way: Gas prices here are already back to what they were before Katrina.

What's your point? Seriously.


You guys need to forget about how much it costs to fill up your car for a second. Global demand for oil has never been so high. That is the main driver behind the rising oil price. Not CNN.

ZfrkS62 09-22-2005 07:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crayzayjay
Quote:

Originally Posted by ZfrkS62
If you still don't believe him after that, look at it this way: Gas prices here are already back to what they were before Katrina.

What's your point? Seriously.

The point is that the price of oil is not going to stay high. It skyrocketed after Katrina but here we are about 3 weeks later and prices are back down. it'll be high after Rita depending on how bad she is when she makes land fall.

it has been mentioned before that natural resources will never stay high. As our focus shifts towards other forms of energy, oil prices will start to fall as the demand for it drops off.

I'd only stick with oil futures for about 15 more years, max.

graywolf624 09-22-2005 07:50 PM

Quote:

Not really the peaks? What are you on, buddy? If a stock is trading at an all-time high, then at that point in time, it's at a peak.
A peak is not being at the all time high for the stock. A peak is the point where it begins a downward spiral.

Quote:

I'm looking at it beyond the next few months. And you think im long on oil solely because of a hurricane? You think traders buy and sell because something is on CNN? There is always 'noise', but the oil price is mainly driven by fundamentals.
Except it hasnt been over the last few years.. Go look at that thread.. the price of gas has been driven by oil futures since the start of the iraq war. Also read any basic economics book and youll learn that the price of any natural good always drops in the long run. Proven fact.


Quote:

Get some market experience, then tell me what you think of the law of efficient markets.

graywolf624 wrote:
so analyzing the past performance is useless
Tell that to any trader and he will laugh at you.
Judging by the fact that analysis of those traders has proven that their predictions are correct only 50 percent of the time, the same as if you randomly picked, kinda proves my point. The law of efficient markets is true in so far as previous performance cant be analyzed to show future predictions, cause that previous performance is factored into the price of the stock. The truely good traders are the ones that can act earlier then anyone else.. Say in a valley or at the base of an uptrend, as your stating. Its not based on analysis, but rather speed of action.

I have plenty of market experience, thank you very much.

Quote:

The difference between this and the dotcom bubble is that there was no precedent for valuing those types of businesses. Oil has been valued in much the same way as it ever has. Unless China decides, oh i dont know, to stop growing next year, there will be no crash in the oil price.
Actually in fact there was a type of way to value these business'.. The same one that values oil and every business in the world. When you start to think your business or market is somehow special is when you end up losing your shirt. The price of oil yet again.. Is 100 percent currently tied to the speculation in the futures market. The price of none of the fundamentals has increased other then the price per barrel driven by the speculation(there is no scarcity, not like you have dificulty getting a hold on gas).

crayzayjay 09-22-2005 07:52 PM

15 years? And isnt that a long-term investment? Christ, you have to cash in before you die!

graywolf624 09-22-2005 07:59 PM

10-20 years is about the start of long term. Anything below 10 is considered medium or short term.

ZfrkS62 09-22-2005 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crayzayjay
15 years? And isnt that a long-term investment? Christ, you have to cash in before you die!

dude, where'd you learn to add? that would put me at 37. hardly an old age :? and at the rate time seems to have been flying by, 15 years aint shit.

I've been thinking along the lines of realistically when the alternative fuels vehicles will be hitting the market. and with the arguments about hydrogen, despite the amount of manufacturers working on it, i'm thinking it is going to be about 15 years until they emerge and oil starts to slip.

Gray will probably tell me i'm being a bit optimistic in that thought though :roll:

crayzayjay 09-22-2005 08:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by graywolf624
Except it hasnt been over the last few years.. Go look at that thread.. the price of gas has been driven by oil futures since the start of the iraq war. Also read any basic economics book and youll learn that the price of any natural good always drops in the long run. Proven fact.

And what is the futures price equal to? Spot price + cost of carry....

Quote:

Originally Posted by graywolf624
Also read any basic economics book and youll learn that the price of any natural good always drops in the long run. Proven fact.

Of course, the price of oil cannot rise forever, i didnt suggest it would.

Quote:

Originally Posted by graywolf624
Judging by the fact that analysis of those traders has proven that their predictions are correct only 50 percent of the time, the same as if you randomly picked, kinda proves my point. The law of efficient markets is true in so far as previous performance cant be analyzed to show future predictions, cause that previous performance is factored into the price of the stock. The truely good traders are the ones that can act earlier then anyone else.. Say in a valley or at the base of an uptrend, as your stating. Its not based on analysis, but rather speed of action.

Debating what makes a good trader could take a while. But if you think there is no analysis involved you are insane. You think that Goldmans trader in the City cashed a $50m bonus last year because he's quick on the draw?

Quote:

Originally Posted by graywolf624
Actually in fact there was a type of way to value these business'.. The same one that values oil and every business in the world. When you start to think your business or market is somehow special is when you end up losing your shirt. The price of oil yet again.. Is 100 percent currently tied to the speculation in the futures market. The price of none of the fundamentals has increased other then the price per barrel driven by the speculation(there is no scarcity, not like you have dificulty getting a hold on gas).

When one says 'fundamentals', it means fundamental drivers, which don't necessarily carry a price. I would have thought someone with market experience would know that. And no, there was no precedent for valuing dotcom companies, which is why people lost a lot of money.

crayzayjay 09-22-2005 08:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by graywolf624
10-20 years is about the start of long term. Anything below 10 is considered medium or short term.

Fair enough, but things changed a bit when hedge funds came into the mix. I used to work for a fund that invested with a 1-2 year horizon. We were considered long-term investors by the sell-side.

Either way, i wouldnt look at oil as a 10 year investment.

graywolf624 09-22-2005 08:12 PM

Quote:

futures price equal to? Spot price + cost of carry....
Yes.. And as any person will tell you spot price includes the price of any future expectations of increases and scarcity. Given these have had no connection any actualy shortage, and have led several speculatory events:
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/commen...j_20040818.gif
There has been no rationing or lines in front of gas stations outside of immediately following Katrina(a short run event). Speculators are subject to groups like goldmen(sp?) sachs saying the the price will rise to x, and the news media crying 4 dollars a gallon. They are also subject to the myth in the general media that running out of oil is even possible. Stock traders arent supermen, they are subject to falling for the same lies anyone else is.

Quote:

Of course, the price of oil cannot rise forever, i didnt suggest it would
It wont just not rise.. It will decrease over the long haul of 10-20 years.


Quote:

Debating what makes a good trader could take a while. But if you think there is no analysis involved you are insane. You think that Goldmans trader in the City cashed a $50m bonus last year because he's quick on the draw?
I never said analysis wasnt used. I said analysis of past shows no valid way of buy a stock that will earn money. The price of all previous earnings and expected earnings based on past experience is already priced into the stock. Statistical analysis of said estimates show a complete random percentage of correct pics based on this. Understanding the past has benefits, but predicting the future is not one of them.

Quote:

When one says 'fundamentals', it means fundamental drivers, which don't necessarily carry a price. I would have thought someone with market experience would know that. And no, there was no precedent for valuing dotcom companies, which is why people lost a lot of money.
One has to wonder where I said it didnt.. I said 'none of them have increase other then...'
Dont put words in my mouth.

graywolf624 09-22-2005 08:14 PM

Some points to ponder... The second largest oil trader after goldman Sachs has predicted a price of gas decrease in next few years from what it was last year(this being morgan stanley).
Meanwhile, Forbes has said the same thing, coining the term bubble.

And myself, I called this prediction before either of them.. Ive actually considering buying futures short.. Im not sure enough about whether the price will be back below 50 within 1 year or 2.. Forbes says 1.

Quote:

Fair enough, but things changed a bit when hedge funds came into the mix. I used to work for a fund that invested with a 1-2 year horizon. We were considered long-term investors by the sell-side.
Hedge funds are primarily speculation, and where the crux of high oil prices currently lies at the moment(as Ive been telling you).
Hedge funds did change things, they did so by adding more speculation into the mix.
The reason 1-2 years is considered long term is because hedge funds only work on what is actually the short run. The long run requires time to adjust pay rates and move around capita, 2 years doesnt cut that.

graywolf624 09-22-2005 08:48 PM

Yeah oh so off.. and you could attempt to spell the name right while your at it.

Should I get out my graduate level finance text book mentioning the 30 year study on trend analysis being ineffective and that the law of effective markets is a true law, Im sure I could find a scanner and send it your way.. A google search im sure would show you the same info.

A quick glance gives this:
Quote:

While technical analysis is widely used (if only as one input among many) by both professional and amateur traders as a means of predicting future market moves, it is generally not used by economists in any academic sense.


Criticism of Technical Analysis

Lack of scientific evidence
Although many chartists believe that their techniques provide excess returns over time, this has not been proven through academic research. In fact, after trading costs are factored in, the returns generated by many technical analysis strategies tend to underperform a simple buy and hold strategy according to some studies.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_analysis


And another: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/02/101502.asp

But perhaps in 1970 my name was Eugene Fema and I made up this idea.. Oh wait, I wasnt even alive yet.

And I guess Forbes and Morgan Stanely are just blowing smoke.. And of course I dont see any speculation tied to the flow of prices in the market.. Come on man.. I know you have issues with me, but if your gonna talk smack, bring the tech.

Quote:

And no, there was no precedent for valuing dotcom companies
Yet again incorrect.. The problem was the assumption to value the dotcom companies any way different then anyother economy.. The screwed up idea of a new economy. There are no new economies. The economy works the same, and valuation of dot coms was based on speculation that somehow this new economy would work differently.. patently false.

Unfortunately the same thing is happening in oil as people are assuming that oil will eventually run out and that the price will go into the stratosphere. The assumptions that somehow oil is different and will not follow natural resource paths is a direct parallel to the previous paragraph. Yet again Forbes, one of the biggest market movers/analyzers in the world, backs it up.. But I guess we are both wackjobs right?

nthfinity 09-23-2005 01:23 AM

Quote:

I've been thinking along the lines of realistically when the alternative fuels vehicles will be hitting the market. and with the arguments about hydrogen, despite the amount of manufacturers working on it, i'm thinking it is going to be about 15 years until they emerge and oil starts to slip.

Gray will probably tell me i'm being a bit optimistic in that thought though
IMHO, for alternative fuels to be successful, burried fuel cannot be its source, as creating hydrogen gas is more costly in burned fossil fuels then the benefit from spitting water out the tail pipe offsets. the laws governing automotive exhaust are far more strict than the stacks on power plants, particularly in the trade-barter between less polluting plants, and the alternative.

hydroelectric, nuclear, wind, and geothermal power stations are really the only renewable sources that would make driving a hydrogen car much more realistic.

i have no problem with burning hydrogen,... more efficiant (roughly 40%), more power! but FUCK electric cars :fist:

callen 09-23-2005 04:54 PM

so....supercars? :wink:


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:12 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2026, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.