Gasoline (petrol) is too expensive!!!

[ae86_16v]

That's all I gotta say.

Here in the San Francisco region most places are hovering around $3.50 a gallon for premium (91 Octane).

http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/3043/katrinaoilgagb10419uq.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[Toronto]

here in toronto it is anywhere from 1.13-30 that is per liter :(

[ZfrkS62]

still at 2.65/gallon as of 6:15 this evening. I agree though. this is going to get out of hand :(

[ae86_16v]

Oh yeah, that picture was taken in Atlanta, Georgia.

[ZfrkS62]

that price better have come down, otherwise they're about to get busted for gouging.

[racer_f50]

Prices per gallon just went over $3 here in South Dakota. Thank god I can get nearly 30mpg in-town if I'm careful. :|

[nchs09]

i paid 4 yest to fill up the tank and there was chaos. lol poeple got into fights ovr gas.

and only like 2 gasstations were opened in the WHOLE atlanta area :cry:

[nthfinity]

here in the Motor city capitol of the world... 3.19/gallon for 87 (mon+ron)/2 at the 'cheap' places in Kazo0...

its wierd to think, but i actually havent been driving most places i would normally drive too... but, when i did, i left the auto-box in 2nd, and gave it some extra throttle by petrol stations, and wankers, cause... fuck em :)

(the main reason its extra expensive here is due to the pipeline from the gulf that normally runs right into Romulus, MI is short on power in the gulf region, let alone the fact that some of these refineries are not powered up...

im hoping that this changes soon, and build some new refineries, damnit!

(dont forget, in the 'good' states, we still get 93, and 94 octane from pump gas) just add .20 $

[corpse_grinder0]

I just paid 3.20 this morning

[Kinxy]

Regular gas (95) is 7.32 USD per gallon here in Norway, which amounts to 12.30 Norwegian kroner per liter.

[bmwmpower]

here almost 1 euro per liter / 95
really expensive, right time to use LPG or liquid gas

[cooperluke]

Here in Portugal:

Unleaded 95: 1.249 eur
Unleaded 98: 1.314 eur
Unleaded GForce (100oct) : 1.374

Considering that the minimal salary here is around 370eur, the prices are getting "a bit" too expensive.

Happily my everyday car is diesel...


Just don't understand one thing...

What do I have to do with the american fuel derricks afected by the Katrina?
I thought most of our oil came from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and countries in that area...

It's the usual, every reason is a good reason to put the prices up, but they never put them down if things return to normal.

[corpse_grinder0]

I don't understand you americans whining about expensive gas, you don't even know what's expensive gas :lol: I guess were about the same level with Norway, today 1,369$/liter 95octane, that is about 6,3$/gallon. Papers and news are saying that tomorrow it will approx 1,45€/liter eguals 6,67€/gallon.
I think we will start shopping in a nearby market instead of car market and I will drive everywhere with my bicycle :lol:

sure gas is cheaper here, but dont we americans drive more than the rest of the world? maybe im mistaken but its the impression I am under. So far this year, ive put on 15k miles on my bike in about 8 months... and I know I put on about 3k miles on my roomates bike. And I have no idea how many miles in cars/trucks.

[graywolf624]

The gas stations are wildly varying.. I see 2.79 across the street from 3.29..

That being said Im with forbes on this one.(If you didnt know, yesterday Forbes predicted a collapse of the oil bubble within a year):
http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/Story.asp?Article=120780&Sn=BUSI&IssueID=28164

My own comments on another forum on this situation(note I started saying this 2 days ago, so you can't say I got it from Forbes:
It's good to see I'm not alone in my hunch.
The concept isn't that demand will decrease, but rather we are creating an artificial demand both real(in terms of the bread and water hording we get for a snow fall) and imagined(if the tv says gas will raise to 4 dollars a gallon, it will rise to 4 dollars a gallon). Then you realize that up until this week no one was even waiting in line for gas, and that the current situation is a temporary that will most likely result in overcompensation. What does that leave? I'm seriously debating going short, the only question is timing. I also can guarentee you that in our lifetimes you'll see the equivellent of 1.20 gas, though I'm not commenting on when. I'm expecting sub 2.00 prices in a year.

[Pokiou]

in sutralia we are paying about 1.30 for hi octance and about a 1.20 for normal fuel :( i remember 10 years ago it was 50 - 60 cents a lt

[cooperluke]

Didn't understand you, corpse_grinder0, you say you have the cheaper gas because you spend more?

Spend less!!!

Acording to you logic, we (rest of the world) should waste gas and use the car to go everywhere, so that our gas would become cheaper?

[topgeartom]

So how much does it cost you yanks to fill an average family car tank then?

[TransAm]

lol, coming onto a predominantly European forum and whining about petrol prices is just going to get you guys zero sympathy!

I am paying twice if not three times as much for gas as I was in January, so I can sympathise a little with you all, but at the end of the day the consequence of the current prices might just encourage people out of SUVs and trucks and into proper cars!

If it wasn't for the risk of lynching 'betcha wish ya bought a four banger now' might be a popular bumper sticker amongst the ricer crowd :!:

On the subject, this is a great time to buy that Vette, TransAm or Camaro you had your eye on. I would imagine dealers are giving the things away at the moment.

You might be able to take advantage of the crisis if you bought something liek that now, people will be desperate to sell them and you can just mothball it for a few months until gas prices come back down.

[cooperluke]

So how much does it cost you yanks to fill an average family car tank then?

It's easy...

Considering a car that has a 55 liter tank, you need 72,27 Eur to fill the tank, or 89.9USD, or 49.2 GBP.

Pretty good, hein??

[TransAm]

Tom, it costs me just over $40 to fill the Saab at the moment, usually about 14 or 15 US gallons. I get 350-400 miles out of that :mrgreen:

When I first moved here I remember filling up the Z3 for $12-$15 but it had a smaller tank (only by a few galls though)

[topgeartom]

So at current exchange rates it costs you about £20 to fill up the car, and thats with the recent world events which have pushed up prices.

[angry mode]
It has been costing us poor Brits well in excess of £45 ($82) for ages now.

So dont any of you come squaling about fucking gas prices, youve had it easy for 80+ years, its about time you started paying your fucking way!

[/angry mode]

[nthfinity]

correct me if im wrong, but doesnt most european countries tac on 100%+ tax on gas??



on with what grey said, i agree 100% with you, its just a matter of how long it takes idiots to understand it... sooner the better.

[T-Bird]

well it cost me $61 USD for 17 gallons today in my Pathfinder

[topgeartom]

If i did the same it would cost me $100

[graywolf624]

but it would prolly change if the gas would cost as much as in Europe No more drive-in everything but get up on your feet and walk
Given that the density of the US is far lower then europe, and that people tend to prefer living in the suburbs and commuting to the cities, kinda kills that idea.
In most places people couldnt walk or even ride a bike anywhere.

[graywolf624]

I know, but maybe it is time to design the whole USA again
I have always thought the reason why americans want to go with their cars to everywhere is lazyness. On the other hand lazyness is not a bad word, because it's the driving force for development.
What does having much more space and people not wanting to live on top of each other have to do with laziness? Its not like driving through a traffic jam every morning is the easy, lazy, way out.
The reality is, until everyone wants to live in the city, doing so is impossible. We do have serveral poorly design cities because theyve expanded at a rate far surpassing elsewhere for such period of time, but the reality is most lies with our culture of wanting to own a house where your neighbors arent right on top of you. Americans want their individuality, and their space. In terms of laziness, the fact that america has the highest level of production in the world per capita kinda kills any notion that thats the underlying reason. (we also tend to work more hours)

[pharzo]

the reality is most lies with our culture of wanting to own a house where your neighbors arent right on top of you. Americans want their individuality, and their space. In terms of laziness, the fact that america has the highest level of production in the world per capita kinda kills any notion that thats the underlying reason. (we also tend to work more hours)

Yes that, and the fact that the US has the worst public transportation system anywhere in the industrialized world :wink:

GM streetcar anyone?

[corpse_grinder0]

Didn't understand you, corpse_grinder0, you say you have the cheaper gas because you spend more?

Spend less!!!

Acording to you logic, we (rest of the world) should waste gas and use the car to go everywhere, so that our gas would become cheaper?

just saying that gas prices are built into our economy

[graywolf624]

pharzo, the first one leads to the second one. When you have a city like atlanta spread in an huge area, you end up with a situation where public transportation just isnt feasible. A better analogy would be comparing a transportation program for the entire country of poland and asking if it could be used to go to work from one end to the other every day for the majority of people. While systems do exist, its hardly going to be feasible on that rediculous scale. Luckily you dont have to do that scale because your citizens dont have the same hang ups about individuality.

Our cities are so spread that literally it converges on rediculous amounts of space.

The New York City urbanized area covers more land area than any other, at approximately 8,684 square kilometres (3,353 sq miles). The lowest density large urbanized area in the world is Atlanta, which covers 5,084 square kilometres (1,963 sq miles), with a population of 3,500,000 for a density of 688 people per square kilometre (1,783 people per square mile).

All data comes from wickipedia.. And I can verify its out of date..
I use to rent an appartment directly behind a sign displaying the population of Atlanta. The population there had cleared 4.5 million when I left 2 years ago, and they expand the city bounds every year(with plans to expand it another 25 miles out in the works).

[pharzo]

your citizens dont have the same hang ups about individuality.

right... :roll:

you end up with a situation where public transportation just isnt feasible

Maybe not, but that's not why you don't have any :P

[graywolf624]

right...

Your going to sit there and tell me that its considered bad form and people hate to live in close proximity in your country. I find that hard to believe. Definitly in london and Germany they majority of people don't have the destain for living on top of each other that Americans have. Your also going to tell me that you view driving in the same way Americans do. That is a progression of freedom and individuality protected from the confines of society(at least thats why the liberals say we have road rage). Sorry but I don't buy it, cause international studies on culture show that Americans have a larger focus on individuality and personal responsibility then most other countries, tied to a belief in individual power over the society(explaining part of the focus on socialism there versus capitalism here.) It is a generalization, but in terms of the housing and car in the place of society I can verify the difference.

Maybe not, but that's not why you don't have any
Actually we do have public transportation in every major hub. They just arent effective cause they cant go anywhere. That really is the reason. Take atlanta(pulling from having lived in downtown). The subway only goes to a very small amount of the city. Buses go alot of places, but the sheer amount of spots makes it an impossiblity.

The most dense places are in asia, with hongkong having a similar number of people over 27 sq miles.. ITs a hell of alot easier to cover 27 sq miles(or the average at maybe 100 sq miles) then 2000 sq miles.

[pharzo]

Your going to sit there and tell me that its considered bad form and people hate to live in close proximity in your country. I find that hard to believe. Definitly in london and Germany they majority of people don't have the destain for living on top of each other that Americans have.

It's really more out of necessity than preference. Come on man, no one wants to live in a crummy commie apartment block. But some people have to. Every new housing development in Warsaw is either massive ultra-modern apartments or detached 3 storey houses.

Actually we do have public transportation in every major hub.
?
They just arent effective cause they cant go anywhere.

Bingo

Buses go alot of places

Gee, I wonder why. Could it be because they have an internal combustion engine and run on distilled oil? :wink:

[graywolf624]

It's really more out of necessity than preference. Come on man, no one wants to live in a crummy commie apartment block. But some people have to. Every new housing development in Warsaw is either massive ultra-modern apartments or detached 3 storey houses.
Crummy commie appartment block isnt necessarily what Im refering too. Look at monaco for an example. Condos, villas, ect are even considered by the upper class.. Thats a rarity here (with perhaps one exception in NYC, any one with any money at all(even just a little) avoids living in the City here. The general population, other then the extremely poor, lives in the country and works in the city, driving between the two every day. That isn't true for the majority of europe at least on the scale Im refering too.). Also reread what I posted above cars place in society.

Could it be because they have an internal combustion engine and run on distilled oil?
What the hell does that have to do with anything? It has to do with the fact that a fixed system such as a rail way is an impossibility on the scale we are talking. Name another system other then internal combustion that has the same flexibility of travel and is currently viable/?

[pharzo]

Crummy commie appartment block isnt necessarily what Im refering too. Look at monaco for an example. Condos, villas, ect are even considered by the upper class.. Thats a rarity here. Also reread what I posted about cars place in society.

Yeah, but that's kinda different. Monaco is _tiny_. Given the choice, I'm fairly certain no Pole would choose to live in those conditions. They've been conditioned pretty thoroughly to hate anything communist by the circumstances of their past lives.

Also reread what I posted about cars place in society.

Sorry, I didn't read it the first time round because you added it after the edit :wink:

It has to do with the fact that a fixed system such as a rail way is an impossibility on the scale we are talking.

Really? How come you can get from one end of europe to the other by rail? Magic?

[graywolf624]

Yeah, but that's kinda different. Monaco is _tiny_. Given the choice, I'm fairly certain no Pole would choose to live in those conditions. They've been conditioned pretty thoroughly to hate anything communist by the circumstances of their past lives.


Really? How come you can get from one end of europe to the other by rail? Magic?

You can do that in the US too.. But can you get to every place outside of the cities in europe without getting off that rail.. No.. We all know that.. Even watching top gear verifies that when we watch the top gear crew have to change transportation means about 17 times on each trip. Now imagine trying to do that and go to work every day, with a typical commute in america of 30 + miles.

A rail way from point a to point b is easy..
A rail way from point a to every point within 2000 sq miles within walking distance is impossible.

Yeah, but that's kinda different. Monaco is _tiny_. Given the choice, I'm fairly certain no Pole would choose to live in those conditions. They've been conditioned pretty thoroughly to hate anything communist by the circumstances of their past lives.
But it isn't. See Im not talking about what your poor do.. Or even the slums your imagining. I'm talking that the culture of the US as a whole is to avoid any appartments, condos ect.. There is an aversion.. Whether it be rich poor or in between. Your discussing an aversion to communist apartments.. Im talking about a situation that includes everything from that to the condos the rich live in in monaco. Theres a reason theres a housing bubble here and everyone lives in 1/2 million dollar houses. ITs a perception of how you should live. Its been beaten to death by our european contingent here on American cars even. Its the same concept of why Americans prefer bigger cars.

Please note: This is nothing to do with which is best or anything like that. I happen to be deep into the international focused business class(and particularly international cultures for management). One of the insights you see is that at each level.. regional, national, state, city, block there are charachteristics of culture that stand out for the majority. The US big one is the American dream. That is every person can get what they want if they work hard and theres nothing wrong with achieving great things if you've busted your ass to do it. That the individuals rights come first over all other things. That isn't to say your rights are trampled, or even we have more rights, but rather where emphasis of the culture is placed.

[graywolf624]

Do you mean GDP per capita? USAs GDP per capita was surely not the highest.
US gdp for non natural resources is the highest in the world. US labor production in total is highest in the world.

The US is second only to luxomberg in gdp per capita(http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/rankorder/2004rank.html) The majority of the other countries in the list either are exceedingly small or have significant portion of their gdp tied to oil. The US labor force is the most skilled and most productive in the world. There is a reason why the US is the remaining superpower, and that is it. Its no spite on anyone else, and certainly doesnt make us the greatest thing since sliced bread, but its what our country is good at. Each country has their thing, highly skilled labor force with focus on r&d and investment is ours. Unfortunately that leads to one of the highest disparities in income with education being the key to success, cause our focus is on skilled labor with little or no place for menial positions outside of the service industry.

Permanent change of oil price and gas prices in USA would eventually change your culture also to not so car dominant.

True but as I've said..
Economics prove its impossible for it to be permanent and it would take a long time to change a core value as its the center of the onion of peoples culture.

[graywolf624]

Even with them being bent, look at the names of the top countries. Other then the US in every list its topped by big oil producers and super small countries. There is a reason for the US being the superpower.

[graywolf624]

Well I dont want you to percieve it as bragging, cause it isn't meant that way. We have our own problems, this just happens to be our area of expertise.. Every country has one(though some areas its harder to find then others).
For example: If I want huge economic growth I go to eastern europe or china.
If I want banks I go to switzerland.
If I want a super car I go to italy.

Different strokes for different folks.

[taygunho]

in turkey we pay 2,20 $ (Per liter) for 98 octane and 2,04$(per liter) for 95 octane
i think this is most expensive gas prices of the world.

[ae86_16v]

Ok, it seems to be dependant on who is doing the statistics. On the statistics I found, USAs GDP per capita is 7th in the world 2004. I was using Finnish Tilastokeskus (Statistics Center). It is like with all the statistics that they can be bent to serve the purpose :|

What was the number?

It is definitely not as low as 7th.

Most of the sources I found states that it is around 40k per capita. Which puts it either 2nd or 3rd. Luxembourg has the clear lead, but Norway and the United States are in a virtual tied for second.

[graywolf624]

In 2004 it was 39934$ and it is not the same number than in CIAs statistics. Before USA there was Luxemburg, Norway, Switzerland, Denmark, Ireland and Iceland. I looked the statistics again and when the ppp is taken in the comparison, then USA is 3rd after Luxxemburg and Norway.
Its prolly due to the way they measure gdp.. either production or consumption(it can be measured from either side).
The purchasing power parity number is the most important one though, as it measures what the person can buy with that money.
Lagging to Luxxemburg which is small as hell and Norway that makes 40 percent of its cash from oil doesn't seem all that bad.

[graywolf624]

Wasn't it in this years study also that said that Norway is the best country in the wolrd to live in? I don't know who or what decides that?
Very subjective rating of course. Prolly depends on whos study it is and what aspects they value most.

[RC45]

Permanent change of oil price and gas prices in USA would eventually change your culture also to not so car dominant.

True but as I've said..
Economics prove its impossible for it to be permanent and it would take a long time to change a core value as its the center of the onion of peoples culture.

This I disagree with 1000%.

The vast geographic spread that is the USA and the vast number (10's of thousands) smaller towns and settlements that are part of the vast rural culture mean that apart from a few metropolitan cities, public trasportation and other "creative" modern trends will not work in the majority of places.

The USA is what the Soviet Union tried to be - a vast economic success covering an enourmous area.

The sheer cost of mass trasit for everyone is impossible to overcome.

Cities will expand their public/mass transit networks - but peronal transortation (first horses, then cars, next who knows what) will always be an integral part of the recipe for the USA... unless all smaller and rural settlements are abandoned and every one of the almost 300 million people moves into a densley populated city area.

And all that would accomplish would be replicate the poverty stricken overcrowding of the Indian subcontinent.

:)

[ZfrkS62]

next who knows what


Segways! :lol: (j/k i hope)

[graywolf624]

Cities will expand their public/mass transit networks - but peronal transortation (first horses, then cars, next who knows what) will always be an integral part of the recipe for the USA... unless all smaller and rural settlements are abandoned and every one of the almost 300 million people moves into a densley populated city area.

If the price went up to 20 dollars a gallon(an impossiblity) and stayed there(also impossible according to economic law, with as much or even more proof then darwins theories) then over the course of a generation or so people would move into the cities cause they had no choice. Yet again, impossibility so isnt worth discussing really.

I agree with you that attempting such a policy change would be worthless, but I think we were discussing the plausibility of oil prices changed by either force or markets changing behavior. In the US case those set of conditions would be impossible to enforce, as it would require artificially jacking up the price of gasoline and every alternative for probably 30 years to achieve that effect. It just isnt possible in a technological innovative society.

[SFDMALEX]

I hope you guys dont take those statisctics seriously because they are all bullshit. They can only give you a vague idea.

[topgeartom]

Are you seriously siggesting that after a peak in gas prices there will be a large drop (over time obviously) and a subsequent return to more 'normal' prices were are familiar with now?

By the time im roughly 35 the worlds oil reserves we can currently access will be gone. And unless theres some major innovation within the oil mining industry, we aint gonna be getting vast amounts more.

Therefore, it seems the only impossablity is that gas prices will ever do a U-turn and become more inexpensive. They are going to go up and up and up. Simple as that.

Just my 2penneth worth

[SFDMALEX]

By the time im roughly 35 the worlds oil reserves we can currently access will be gone. And unless theres some major innovation within the oil mining industry, we aint gonna be getting vast amounts more.



Just my 2penneth worth

Thats when the States are going to invade Canukistan for our OIL reserves :lol:

Funny thing is they'll just walk through the border and we wont be able to do jack shit :lol:

[RC45]

By the time im roughly 35 the worlds oil reserves we can currently access will be gone. And unless theres some major innovation within the oil mining industry, we aint gonna be getting vast amounts more.

This is one of those old wives tales people like to believe.

Thars mor dang awl then y'all kin sheik a stik at unda mah feets bouye... ;)

They just stopped drilling in Texas and Oklahoma because the environmentalists kept whining about the filth and pollution of the process - so the EPA put rules in place that made in cost more to get the oil out of the ground than you could sell it for.

Thank your green buddies for the cost of gas ... ;) - because it is their fault that the world goes to the eyerabs for to get oil.
After all - the green folks don't care if the pollution is in "those countries".... they just don't wantit in their back yard :P

[graywolf624]

Are you seriously siggesting that after a peak in gas prices there will be a large drop (over time obviously) and a subsequent return to more 'normal' prices were are familiar with now?

By the time im roughly 35 the worlds oil reserves we can currently access will be gone. And unless theres some major innovation within the oil mining industry, we aint gonna be getting vast amounts more.

Therefore, it seems the only impossablity is that gas prices will ever do a U-turn and become more inexpensive. They are going to go up and up and up. Simple as that.
More then a wives tale RC..ITs just plain false. I've discussed this before. In terms of real dollars its impossible for the price of a natural resource to do anything but drop in price(after inflation) in the long run. It has occured with every major resource (Ive gone in depth in this but a brief recap here, see the discusion in the political forum for more info). In 1982 a geologist and an economist bet on price of tin copper and steel. The geologist said prices would rise, the economist prices would fall. The economist of course was correct.. Why?
Technological innovation makes it impossible for natural resources to do anything but drop in the long run. Alternatives come into play as the price of something rises, resulting in a shift in demand to the new source. Alternatives even take the form of other ways to produce the original good(as we've seen that the price of oil has dropped since the shortage in the 70s as we've invented new ways to get at it). The alternatives go deeper then that.. In the late 19th century the key was coal. The price of coal dropped though as we shifted to alternatives.
You shift over to an alternative when the price of the standard good surpasses the price of the alternative ( a few units at a time over the short and potentially medium run). The thing is, then the price of the alternative will drop due to investment, economies of scale, and technology.. The price of the original good(in this case oil) will drop as the alternative does (while would anyone in a free market economy spend a dime more then they have too for the same thing). In the long run it is proven economic law, in the same way as newtons laws, it always occurs. Economists disagree on the definition of what is long run, but you'll find the majority agree on 10-20 years.

My minor (3 classes short of a bachlor) was in economics with a focus on international trade and environment/public goods. This stuff is my specialty.

Also as discussed elsewhere, theres been claims that we are running out of oil since it was first used in the 19th century. I don't even think the switch to the alternative is on us yet. With Forbes I believe that the current bubble created by speculation in the oil futures market will crash(since our current prices arent caused by demand but rather speculation) resulting in a return to sub 2 dollar a gallon gas. The second biggest oil trader, morgan stanley, also agrees. That short term prediction is within a year. That isn't based on economic law though, that parts my own observations.

If your really a sucker you can bet that Im wrong.. Ill take all people on part 1 and a few beer bets on part 2.. Cause Im 100 percent sure on part 1.. and part 2 is a very good hunch.. Ive actually considered buying short gas futures, but if my timings off by a week Im screwed.

[topgeartom]

By the time im roughly 35 the worlds oil reserves we can currently access will be gone. And unless theres some major innovation within the oil mining industry, we aint gonna be getting vast amounts more.

This is one of those old wives tales people like to believe.

Thars mor dang awl then y'all kin sheik a stik at unda mah feets bouye... ;)

They just stopped drilling in Texas and Oklahoma because the environmentalists kept whining about the filth and pollution of the process - so the EPA put rules in place that made in cost more to get the oil out of the ground than you could sell it for.

Thank your green buddies for the cost of gas ... ;) - because it is their fault that the world goes to the eyerabs for to get oil.
After all - the green folks don't care if the pollution is in "those countries".... they just don't wantit in their back yard :P

firstly i dont have any 'green buddies' they're all twats. :D

I heard that in 20ish years time the oil reserves we currently have access to will run out, although there is more to be had - we just dont have the capability of getting at it yet. So technically there might be some major innovation which allows the miners to get at the black stuff, although its relatively unlikely.

and if it is the Green bastards stopping access to oil, why the fuck did america decide to go on an outing to Iraq in order to secure more oil? Can't we just tell all the environmentalist pussies that thers a forest fire in peru or something, and that theres a danger a badger or shrew might get slightly warm in the process. that should shit them up enough and have them running out of the way! :P

[graywolf624]

I heard that in 20ish years time the oil reserves we currently have access to will run out, although there is more to be had - we just dont have the capability of getting at it yet. So technically there might be some major innovation which allows the miners to get at the black stuff, although its relatively unlikely.
Running out of any natural resource is completely impossible.

Think about it for a second..
The price of something sold on the market is controlled by the supply crossed with the demand.
Now.. imagine for a second that the demand stayed the same..(an impossibility from the point your about to get clear)..
Now what does that mean the last drop of oil would cost?
infinite dollars cause thered be 1 drop of oil..
What does the cost of an alternative like hydrogen, nuclear, or even solar cost? Much lower then infinite, that much is sure right?
Now given that we know with enough money any of the 3 above is an alternative, why would anyone buy that last drop of oil at that price?

But wait.. theres more..
if the last drop of oil costs that much, the one before has to cost infinite-1 ... and so on.

What does this mean? That means at some point.. say x(the price of the first alternative, for arguement sake hydrogen) will equal the price of supply equals demand for oil.
Free markets work that no one would buy that oil if it costs a dime more then x.
Now the price of x is effected by investment, tech innovation, and economies of scale.. So suddenly at x portions of demand for oil shift to alternative.. lowering x price.. which lowers amount willing to spend on oil, and thus demand of oil(amount used)..
rinse lather repeat.. Its proven that things work this way.. Theres even a top level cut stop.. That is every resource has something thats infinite at an upper level, and the price can never go beyond this point for anything in that area of usage. Meanwhile the price of that infinite comes down with time as well.

Care to bet... Got anything I might want in an easy sucker bet? Ill put everything I make for the rest of my life against everything you make that the real price of oil will drop over the 20-30 year mark.. you know just to make it interesting.. Get to working, I want a ferrari.

By the way, we already have a way to get more oil that is not currently economicly viable that would be in the future.. Shail oil. Over I believe the number is 70 dollars a barell it becomes feasible on a large scale. Driving its costs down. Technological innovation to get at more oil also is a given. Given enough money almost anything is possible and once something starts the initial innovation its price always drops over time. Given a spike in the short run people are more willing to spend on that innovation, which leads to the lower price in long run.
So I ask you again, care to bet?

[topgeartom]

Well its a very fair and well put togeather argument, and one that ill accept.

but as far as gas prices coming down with the move to an alternative resource, this isnt going to happen tommorrow, and it sure as hell wont happen overnight, to the point where its all relevant. the timescale over which this will happen is so large that you could put togeather a well fashioned argument stating that oil prices will come down because its possible that in the time it takes for the transition to occur and our dependancy on oil to subside, aliens will land and start handing out barrels of 98octane!

On the whole though i accept what your saying :D

[graywolf624]

this isnt going to happen tommorrow, and it sure as hell wont happen overnight, to the point where its all relevant.
No one ever said it would. I believe the statement was whether the price of oil could cause people to sell their homes that many are brand new, invest heavily and rebuild entire cities.. so the people would live in the cities rather then the suburbs. That type of change takes a generation.

[ae86_16v]

Gray, for someone that only minored in Economics, that isn't bad :). I did not expect the thread to go this direction, although I was hoping that it'll. This has become a very interesting discussion.

As you pointed out, as the price of oil increase, companies will not only "invent" new alternatives, but will also go to greater lengths to gather the oil. This in itself will definitely drive the price down as new sources of oil are discovered.

People have be saying that we will run out of oil in 20 years for the last 80 years.

The current increase of prices definitely has to do with the Hurricane and the refining capabilities. The US has that problem in which that it can not refine enough to satisfy inventory. So in turn when President Bush declare to release oil from the Strategic Reserves, that will probably not do much if anything to ease the prices. Like pointed out in previous arguements, it is not the problem of not enough oil, it is the problem of not enough refining capabilities.

My personal observation of why has oil gone up above $60 - $70 dollar a barrel. Purely demand driven. And the reason. . . China. Increasing modernization, more people buying cars, government using more heavy machinery and etc. etc. All has lead to the increase in prices. And it is only going to get more and more expensive until like Gray said, either one we find the alternative energy sources or two we dig in new places and we dig deeper.

Prices in the San Francisco Bay Area region for 91 Octane just hit 3.30 a gallon.

[ae86_16v]

Mojo what Graywolf is trying to say is that in the long run, the price of oil will have to come down. Because once it gets so expensive alternatives will naturally present itself. Once it hits a certain price point, there will be cheaper substitutes for cruel oil. So that is why it'll have to come down.

Of course energy consumption has increase, just look at China as one of the examples. 1.2 Billion people and they'll only consume more and more as their income rise and allow them. But cheaper energy alternatives will present itself in the long run. Whether it is fusion or fuel cells or something we don't know about yet, or even maybe more efficent ways of using cruel or extracting it (e.g. via Nanotechnology), but something will come up. It is just technological innovation.

20 to 30 years seems like a good estimate.

[graywolf624]

goes, the price of gas has increased. I would say that last 15 years gas has been more and more expensive every year.

Mojo, ask yourself another question. The price of gas has increased over the last 15 years in terms of cost. Now, first subtract out any new taxes your govt added to it. Then compare it to the change in wage you've experienced in the last 20 years.
You should see the price of gas is still way lower, considering the price per barel of oil, even after all this speculation and drive of the last few months, is below the adjusted for inflation number of 1980(90 dollars a barrel versus todays 69). People foget to adjust for inflation all the time, my mother argues all the time the price of milk is outlandish. Then I point out that she makes 9x what she did 30-40 years ago, and the price of milk is more like 3 x what it cost.

I still say speculation in the futures market is causing our current drive.. But that ones not as certain.

[RC45]

I have been in the USA for 10 years now.

I have seen the price of gasoline go from .90c to $1.80 back to $1.00 back to $2.50 back to .98c back to $1.90 and down to $1.50 and up again to $2.75 and down and up and down and up...

the $3.00+ we see today is simply because the refinery capacity has been brought to the front line.

The green tree huggers should now know the current prices are their fault.

Had oil companies in Houston been allowed to build the new refineries they have been trying to for 20 years or so, then th storm damage in New Orleans and beyond would have only been a pipeline inconvenience - and refining could have continued uninterrupted.

There would still eb a gasoline shortage in LA, MS and AL - but ony because of local damage.

There would have been no need for prices to rise in New York, Chicago or San Fran...

And again I will remind all that gasoline refining is but one use for oil... even if we all drove hydroegn powered cars, where would the oil come from for all the polymers that thecars are made of? ;)

[graywolf624]

even if we all drove hydroegn powered cars, where would the oil come from for all the polymers that thecars are made of?
Judging by current trends(zo6 being a great example), carbon fiber is fixing to replace plastic for cars just as plastic replaced steel. No one could have forseen its extensive use in a 65000 dollar car just a few years ago... It will continue to drop.

[RC45]

even if we all drove hydroegn powered cars, where would the oil come from for all the polymers that thecars are made of?
Judging by current trends(zo6 being a great example), carbon fiber is fixing to replace plastic for cars just as plastic replaced steel. No one could have forseen its extensive use in a 65000 dollar car just a few years ago... It will continue to drop.

I not refering to bodywaork at all - but all the polymers used to make every component, from fibres for non-natural carpets, plastic widgets, gadgets and doodads :)

Even all the uber luxo cars out there only use leather, wood and metal on the exposed bits, the rest are plastic derivatives - not to mention the 10's of millions of econ boxes that even if they have metal body panels are riddled with plastics.

:)

Besides which - if I am not mistaken, all the resins used to bond the CF and such are all polymers derived from oil.

[graywolf624]

not refering to bodywaork at all - but all the polymers used to make every component, from fibres for non-natural carpets, plastic widgets, gadgets and doodads

Even all the uber luxo cars out there only use leather, wood and metal on the exposed bits, the rest are plastic derivatives - not to mention the 10's of millions of econ boxes that even if they have metal body panels are riddled with plastics.

Realizing that we haven't even had plastic for that long, especially in cars, I'd not worry about it that much. How many cars from the 40s and even 50s had plastics? Not that many.
Don't worry about it, just like the energy standpoint, its not a fear in the long run. As price goes up, alternatives always exist. Hell my dad had a 46 pickup when I was growing up that didn't have a piece of plastic in it. Innovation always overcomes in the long run, whether we know the alternative or we don't at this point.

[RC45]

Just did a quick tally in the house - not a single thing we have would be possible in it's current form without plastics.

Nothing - even the hand soap and shampoo are chock full of petroleum derived polymers ;)

Packaging, insulation, structural, electronic and mechanical - all petroleum byproduct improved.

:)

Didn't drive a mile today, but used up some oil ;) - threw away plastic packaging, washed myelf and even am wearing non-natural fibre enhanced cloths :)

I wanna see the Green Treehuggers try live without oil.. ;)

I say we drag them kicking and screaming back to 1885... just so we can beat the crap out of them - with wooden sticks :P

[graywolf624]

Some day you will.. but if they had too tomorrow itd be like them trying to survive without killing a living thing.. or releasing carbon dioxide.. Theyd have to kill themselves.

[jakaracman]

I don't understand you americans whining about expensive gas, you don't even know what's expensive gas :lol: I guess were about the same level with Norway, today 1,369$/liter 95octane, that is about 6,3$/gallon. Papers and news are saying that tomorrow it will approx 1,45€/liter eguals 6,67€/gallon.
I think we will start shopping in a nearby market instead of car market and I will drive everywhere with my bicycle :lol:

sure gas is cheaper here, but dont we americans drive more than the rest of the world? maybe im mistaken but its the impression I am under. So far this year, ive put on 15k miles on my bike in about 8 months... and I know I put on about 3k miles on my roomates bike. And I have no idea how many miles in cars/trucks.
What does the amount you drive haver to do with the price of fuel?
And we here in europe have only ourselves to plame for the price of petrol - approx 60-70% of the price is the tax, levied by governmets we choose. If the tax would be on the same level as for food or clothzes or anything similar (ie VAT only, not special taxes on petrol) the prices here would be similar to tjhose in USA ...

[graywolf624]

What does the amount you drive haver to do with the price of fuel?
If you have to drive much more to accomplish the same goals here that you do there, then the price of gas has a larger effect on day to day activities.

[jakaracman]

I found it. It's UN's development programs UNDP study. The whole raport will be revealed on 7th of September. Study bases on life time expectancy, education, literacy ability and GDP.
Fun? Enjoying life? Quality of living?

[jakaracman]

What does the amount you drive haver to do with the price of fuel?
If you have to drive much more to accomplish the same goals here that you do there, then the price of gas has a larger effect on day to day activities.
Yes. But the amount of miles you drive has no direct influence on price of gas - only indirect, as it increases demand ... But it afects prices worldvide, not only in US ...
I wrote that before I read whole thread, I agreee with you 99% ... :D

[graywolf624]

http://www.plastemart.com/upload/literature/environment.asp?title=%3Cspan%20title='Myths%20abo ut%20Plastics'%3EMyths%20about%20Plastics%3C/span%3E

Plastics use globally only 4% of commercially produced oil.

[RC45]

Now line that 4% up with fertilzer production, fuel oil for heating, electricity generation, aviation gas, lubrication oils and say - paint production...

The point is that even if all cars cease to use gasoline - oil drilling will never cease... ;)

So lets fire up the drill platforms and pass another spotted-owl sandwich (a lovely quote from a fellow Z06Vette.commer ;)) - we have got uswetlands to destroy :P

[RC45]

Well here ya go - you bunch of green echo terrorists ;) :P

http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/brochure/gas04/gasoline.htm

Products made from a barrel of crude oil:

7.3% Other Products (I am assuming this includes plastics)
1.8% LPG
1.8% Heavy Fuel Oil
4% Jet Fuel
10% Diesel Fuel & Heating Oil
19.7% Gasoline

So - there is your 80/20 Rule Mojo :P ;)

And if the Asians are gonna use gas with impudence... SO am I... :P

http://www.climateark.org/articles/reader.asp?linkid=45582

[graywolf624]

Uh.. rc.. Those aren't percentages. Those are gallons out of a 44 gallon drum.

[RC45]

Uh.. rc.. Those aren't percentages. Those are gallons out of a 44 gallon drum.

Close enough for government work ;)

7.3 (16%) Other Products (I am assuming this includes plastics)
1.8 (4%) LPG
1.8 (4%) Heavy Fuel Oil
4 (9%) Jet Fuel
10 (23%) Diesel Fuel & Heating Oil
19.7 (44%) Gasoline

Still means 1+ for the gas guzzlers... we use less than half of every barrel ;)

[SFDMALEX]

What I am worried about is Jet Fuel...what are we going to do withouht it? :?

[TransAm]

What I am worried about is Jet Fuel...what are we going to do withouht it? :?

Red bull gives you w-iiiings!! :lol:

Seriously though, I'm not sure on that one, it is an interesting question though.

Nuclear fusion technology would be a step in the right direction I guess?

[RC45]

Pass another spotted-owl sandwich and lets get to drilling ;)

[TransAm]

Pass another spotted-owl sandwich and lets get to drilling ;)

Sorry RC, only peregrine falcon-egg sandwiches are on offer today, we ate all the spotted owls already. :lol:

[graywolf624]

What I am worried about is Jet Fuel...what are we going to do withouht it?
Well on the space shuttle they are talking of plutonium... Thats one potential future push.
Technologically theyve gotten alot more efficient already when it comes to fuel. Also theoretically at least, teleportation is possible ;)

[ZfrkS62]

^^ I can't wait for teleporters. Someone is bound to punch in the wrong address or coordinates or something and ZAP! You;ve got an unwanted visitor :lol:

Hey RC, pass me a Bengaled Tiger steak while you're munching that spotted owl burger would you :wink:

[ae86_16v]

What I am worried about is Jet Fuel...what are we going to do withouht it?
Well on the space shuttle they are talking of plutonium... Thats one potential future push.
Technologically theyve gotten alot more efficient already when it comes to fuel. Also theoretically at least, teleportation is possible ;)

Yeah in Quantum Mechanics has already theorized about teleportation of single individual atoms.

But if you worry about tree-huggers complaining about drilling in Alaska, could you imagine what they would do if they found out that nuclear material is traveling into space with the potential of spill all over the atmosphere. They would go crazy =) .